Harry Kane and Mohamed Salah are set to win the Golden Boot race – so who is most likely to receive the award?

The pair narrowly lead the field but favorable upcoming schedules suggest that either the Spurs striker or Liverpool winger will top the scorers’ list on May 23.

Kane is currently leading with 19 goals, followed by Salah at 18, Bruno Fernandes at 16, while Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Patrick Bamford are tied at 14.

Form would also support Kane, who has scored six goals in as many games, while Salah has scored a single goal in his last six games. In terms of results, however, the current form of the clubs appears to be moving in opposite directions – so could the tables be turned?

Despite tight margins, the current front-runners also have the easiest run-ins – in terms of upcoming opponents’ point-per-game ratios – suggesting the pair will have more opportunities to extend their target stats than other rivals.

Harry Kane

Gates: 19th
Goals per 90: 0.70
Remaining games: Man Utd (h), Everton (a), Southampton (h), Sheffield United (h), Leeds (a), Wolves (h), Aston Villa (h), Leicester (a)
Opponent’s Average PPG: 1.39
Sky Bet odds: 8/11

Surprisingly, Kane has yet to book a hat trick in the Premier League this season – but his goal difference of 0.7 per 90 bodes well for the English striker, who last won the Golden Boot four years ago.

Spurs have everything they need for the next fortnight to face their top four rivals Manchester United and Everton and Kane will be considering scoring opportunities against Southampton and Sheffield United in May.

Kane’s shot map above shows his ability to shoot and score from any distance or angle. Expected goal dates are used to color the points and suggest that a number of his goals have contradicted the probabilities.


WATCH FOR FREE: Highlights of Newcastle’s Premier League draw with Tottenham

Mohamed Salah

Gates: 18th
Goals per 90: 0.67
Remaining games: Aston Villa (h), Leeds (a), Newcastle (h), Man Utd (a), Southampton (h), West Brom (a), Burnley (a), Crystal Palace (h)
Opponent’s Average PPG: 1.42
Sky Bet odds: 6/4

Liverpool’s title defense has turned into a top four fight after an injury-related season, but Talisman Mohamed Salah remains the club’s main goal threat.

However, the Egyptian went from boiling during the Reds’ two notable barren runs, but also recorded low xG values ​​- suggesting that Salah may have been less to blame for missing big opportunities, but equally failed to make the openings.

Salah’s shot card shows his tendency to cut inward from his preferred right flank. In fact, almost all of his league goals were fired from this half of the pitch, with a group of hits being fired between six and 18 yard lines.

WATCH FOR FREE: Highlights of Liverpool 3-0 win over Arsenal


WATCH FOR FREE: Highlights of Liverpool 3-0 win over Arsenal

Bruno Fernandes

Gates: 16
Goals per 90: 0.56
Remaining games: Tottenham (a), Burnley (h), Leeds (a), Liverpool (h), Aston Villa (a), Leicester (h), Fulham (h), Wolves (a)
Opponent’s Average PPG: 1.46
Sky Bet odds: 7/1

Fernandes got weaker in January but the Portugal international has revived his best form to increase United’s chances of securing second place.

As a midfielder, he’s certainly a long shot for the award, while eight of his 16 goals were scored on penalties. But United are among the free-scoring teams, and a late rally, coupled with more free kicks, could result in Fernandes attacking late.

The Serial Player of the Month produces a significant number of shots from distance, but only one of them resulted in a league goal against Everton in February this season. His main threat comes from the six yard box – and from 12 yards.

WATCH FOR FREE: Highlights of Manchester United's Premier League win over Brighton


WATCH FOR FREE: Highlights of Manchester United’s Premier League win over Brighton

Patrick Bamford

Gates: 14th
Goals per 90: 0.50
Remaining games: Man City (a), Liverpool (h), Man Utd (h), Brighton (a), Tottenham (h), Burnley (a), Southampton (a), West Brom (h)
Opponent’s Average PPG: 1.74
Sky Bet odds: 33/1

Bamford has certainly proven his critics wrong on Leeds’ scintillating return to the major league, and his goal difference of one every two games provides ample evidence.

The underlying xG suggests that he has become more clinical as the campaign has progressed and Marcelo Bielsa’s gung-ho approach could soften the tough schedule for the upcoming game – but he would have to defy the odds.

Unlike Kane, Bamford shoots almost entirely from inside the box and usually within the central areas of the yard box – although he seems particularly adept at getting out of the area to the left of center.

WATCH FOR FREE: Highlights of Leeds' Premier League win over Sheffield United


WATCH FOR FREE: Highlights of Leeds’ Premier League win over Sheffield United

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Gates: 14th
Goals per 90: 0.58
Remaining games: Crystal Palace (h), Brighton (a), Tottenham (h), Arsenal (a), Aston Villa (h), West Ham (a), Sheffield United (h), Wolves (h), Man City (a)
Opponent’s Average PPG: 1.46
Sky Bet odds: 20/1

Calvert-Lewin has only played 25 league games this season – fewer than his fellow Golden Boot counterparts – while Everton also has a game in hand that bodes well for the English striker.

His goal difference of 0.58 per 90 puts him over Bamford and only behind Kane, Salah and Fernandes. In fact, the 24-year-old doesn’t take any penalties for the toffees and therefore his open-game goalscoring rate exceeds any challenger.

Calvert-Lewin’s shot map reveals his main threat: gaining antennas and opening openings in and around the six-yard box. All of his 14 goals have been scored from within this area, with just nine attempts from distance.

WATCH FOR FREE: Highlights from Burnley's Premier League win over Everton


WATCH FOR FREE: Highlights from Burnley’s Premier League win over Everton


Realistically speaking, Heung-Min Son (13 goals), Jamie Vardy and Ilkay Gundogan (both 12 goals) are the only other underdogs.

Vardy won the award last season but only scored once in the Foxes’ last six league games and only once in their last 13 games, while Kelechi Iheanacho gradually eased the burden.

Meanwhile, it seems unlikely that Gundogan’s streak for elected top scorer Manchester City will surpass, let alone overtake, his top challengers.

The wise money says that Kane or Salah will scoop the Golden Boot, which will add further fuel for the transmission of speculation about their future lie. But which of these players will win the prize is too close to predict.