Our betting guru Jones Knows assumes that Arsenal will claim show-off rights in north London on Sunday

Southampton vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

I have yet to really get a grip on these two teams, which is proving problematic for predictions and betting purposes. After helping Southampton to relegate in the summer, I was surprised at their performance, which should have been more than the four draws they brought.

Can you get the elusive first win here? Well, the markets cannot divide those two. And I think in the same direction. I think Wolves will do significantly better than Saints by the end of the campaign, but their current pre-target conversion rate makes it impossible to imagine.

Wolves have fought for goals with just two Premier League goals this season – an own goal by Watford’s Francisco Sierralta and a meter from Hee-Chan Hwang in a 2-0 win at Watford. This despite attempts to attempt the third highest number of shots this season behind only Manchester City and Liverpool.

Wolves also have the highest expected goals this season (9.2) to back up their shooting data. The -7.2 difference between scored and expected goals is the biggest negative difference in the Premier League. If they start to take advantage of these great opportunities, an opposing team will be in trouble. But I don’t think it will start here. A fifth straight draw for Southampton has to be the game.

PREDICTION OF THE POINTS: 1-1

BET ANGLE: Secure the 1-1 correct result (6/1 with Sky Bet)

Arsenal vs Tottenham, Sunday 4:30 p.m., live on Sky Sports

Mikel Arteta is now at Arsenal in a place of calm and tranquility. Managers come to this place when they know exactly what their best starting XI is and can consistently choose them.

Three wins in all competitions without conceding a goal have certainly made everyone in the club jump in the crotch and made me want to support them this weekend at the prices available (6/5 with Sky Bet). Meanwhile, Tottenham are fortunate to have nine points on the board. An expected goal value of only 4.42 is the worst value in the Premier League and indicates a clear problem of converting chances. That’s just not enough when you have the world’s best striker in your ranks.

I’m all for the home win.

The Emirates stage is firmly set for Emile Smith Rowe to show off his talent on Super Sunday – he’s a huge prize in the various goalscoring markets considering he’s taken a very advanced role alongside Arsenal’s main striker this season Has.

The 21-year-old has been one of Arsenal’s hopes this season and could quickly become his greatest threat in all markets if he finds a little form in front of goal. He has yet to earn respect in the goalscoring markets, with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang taking a large portion of the percentages. In my opinion, its overall sharpness in and around the box is far from the electrical values ​​that we are used to. Smith Rowe has achieved an expected goal value of 0.68 from his seven shots this season.

A continuation of these types of numbers should result in Smith Rowe disturbing scorers on a regular basis this season. And confidence should flow a little more after opening his account for the season from the bank against AFC Wimbledon in the middle of the week. Its prices of 12/1 to score first and 9/2 at all times are well worth pursuing. Just like the 7/1 for Arsenal, which wins with its goal in the game.

PREDICTION OF THE POINTS: 2-1

COMPETITION ANGLE: Smith Rowe scores, Arsenal win (7/1 with Sky Bet)

Image:
Emile Smith Rowe came off the bench to score Arsenal’s second goal mid-week

Crystal Palace vs Brighton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Brighton dominated both Premier League meetings last season against Crystal Palace, then managed by Roy Hodgson, but could not win any of the games as they drew 1-1 at Selhurst Park and 2-1 at Amex against a goal by Christian Benteke lost in stoppage time. Their shooting data in these games was equivalent to one goal every 22.5 shots – a common theme of their problems under Graham Potter. Basically, they had to create a lot of chances to score.

They have corrected that this season as they now score an average of every eight shots and exceed their expected goal numbers. It’s all very different from Brighton. But whether they can stand it is up for debate.

Meanwhile, under Patrick Vieira, Palace are trying to become more of a possession-based team than under Hodgson. Their average ball possession stats averaged up to nearly 50 percent, despite playing against Chelsea and Liverpool in their first five Premier League games.

Monday, September 27th, 7:00 p.m.

Kick-off at 8:00 p.m.

What does all of this mean for this special encounter? Probably a low score but the markets are well prepared for it with only 4/7 on offer at Sky Bet for under 2.5 goals. Prizes like that aren’t really my style, so I’ll be playing a 66/1 shot with Sky Bet as they seriously underestimate the likelihood of Wilfried Zaha being sent off.

Zaha always plays on the sidelines, more than ever with his prickly reactions to fouls, which make him susceptible to an aggressive encounter with the opponent. He played a huge role in the sacking of Japhet Tanganga in defeating Tottenham, a game he received a yellow card for.

The confrontation follows Zaha around. He has been shown four red cards over the course of his career, the last one in January 2019 during one of his many run-ins with James Ward-Prowse. The referee that day was Andre Marriner, who oversees this game. All the ingredients are there, under the lights of a derby match at Selhurst Park, for Zaha to lose his cool while VAR watches like a hawk.

PREDICTION OF THE POINTS: 1-1

COMPETITION ANGLE: Wilfried Zaha is sent off (66/1 with Sky Bet)

Predictions for this weekend

Chelsea vs Manchester City – JONES KNOWS FORECAST 1-1

Manchester United v Aston Villa – JONES WHITE FORECAST 2-1

Everton vs Norwich – JONES WEISS, PREVIOUS 1-2

Leeds vs West Ham – JONES KNOWS FORECAST 1-3

Leicester vs Burnley – JONES WEISS, PROVIDED 1-2

Watford vs Newcastle – JONES KNOWS FORECAST 1-1

Brentford vs Liverpool – JONES WHITE PRESENTED 0-2