After finishing first with two 33/1 winners last week, including Declan Rice, Jones Knows is back with his predictions and betting angles for the Premier League.
West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur, Sunday, 12 noon, live on Sky Sports
When I see the words West Ham, I get the same reaction as when someone asks me to do some algebra. My head only goes to jelly. West Ham are my unsolvable equation.
If I like them, they lose. If I accept them, they will become the Brazilian team from the 1970s.
Deep in my gut and the numbers tell me they are still doing well above average and coming out on the right side of some fine margins, but David Moyes has created a well-oiled machine and has invested wisely in players who need to score points in striker areas.
If I say this, I’m not sure Moyes has the tools to beat the elite teams. There is, of course, an argument as to whether Tottenham should be included in this category, having only scored 11 points in their last 11 Premier League games. But Hammer’s fans are happy, I’m happy to play the away win here.
Moyes has never beaten any of Jose Mourinho’s teams in 15 attempts – most of what he has dealt with a manager in his career without winning, and Mourinho certainly has to let his side off the leash here.
And if the boss allows his frontline players to license them to play, there’s a good chance Harry Kane and Heung-min Son will combine in a devastating effect. Kane has scored nine Son goals this season and I’m glad I can get another hit in the 8/1.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2
COMPETITION ANGLE: Heung-min Son scores a goal supported by Harry Kane (8/1 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa v Leicester, Sunday at 2:30 p.m., live on Sky Sports
Has Aston Villa’s season peaked? In mid-January I was on the verge of supporting them for a top four result, but their performances have stalled in the last four games. In fact, Dean Smith’s team are lucky enough to get seven points out of this run when assessing their attack data. During this time they are actually at the bottom of the expected table of goals scored in the Premier League with a number of just 2.65. Previously, they had finished third in the division for the total expected goals scored. Only West Brom had fewer shots in their last four games than they recorded with just 33.
I have to be against them this week where this lack of threat of attack hits a wall on a Leicester defense.
Brendan Rodgers’ side have only conceded one goal in their last five games – Mohamed Salah broke through the Liverpool win but that’s about it. It is no coincidence that this good run with Caglar Soyuncu has returned to full fitness. The fact that Leicester have done so smoothly this season without the Turkey international is testament to Rodgers’ management and the potential Wesley Fofana has shown.
It was only less than six months ago that Soyuncu was identified as a potential Manchester City target after a formidable season with the Foxes in helping them ease the burden of losing Harry Maguire. Soyuncu’s influence in weakening Villa’s attack process makes me like the look of the 5/2 for a Foxes goal.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1
ANGLE OF COMPETITION: Leicester clean sheet (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal v Manchester City on Sunday at 4:30 p.m. live on Sky Sports
So the run goes on.
The win at Everton was the 17th straight win in all of Manchester City’s competitions and the 12th in the Premier League. They haven’t been a minute behind in any of their last 16 Premier League games – the last time they fell behind in a game was against Sky Bet League Two’s Cheltenham Town, which were just nine minutes away from them FA throw cup. Funny old game.
Can Arsenal become this team to finish this winning run? You have the defensive skills to do this. Much like Pep Guardiola’s winning machine, Mikel Arteta’s team plays with imperious structure without the ball and has the ability to disrupt a free-flowing attack, as was the case with City in the 2-0 FA Cup semi-final win last season . I think they can get a result.
A common theme this season in encounters between the traditional “Big Six” has been the lack of goals as the market expects, with five 0-0 seen earlier this season.
While getting on board isn’t a bet for everyone, as one goal ends all interests, the 0-0 with Sky Bet at 12-1 is worth a little tickling. It wouldn’t be a disaster for either team.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-0 (12/1 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United v Newcastle United, 7pm on Sunday
I want to get Newcastle on my side in this case.
Manchester United look like a side on the verge of facing poor form that all of the top 6 clubs have faced at some point this season. One could argue that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is already in the middle of a difficult environment with just one win from their last four league games against Sheffield United, Southampton, Everton and West Brom.
It was this performance at the Baggies, supported by similarly nervous demonstrations lately, that suggests to me that staying in second place for much longer will be a struggle for them. Sam Allardyce’s men were determined to defend, yes, but they were never pressured by United’s strikers. An expected target number of just 0.47 – the second lowest this season – showed how much inspiration they lacked in the final third. With Sky Bet you can easily dodge 1/4 here.
It seems like Newcastle are serious relegation contenders but a quick look at the table shows they are six points ahead. I would be very surprised if they were scrapped at all, if they played in this more offensive style we’ve seen lately. This is not Newcastle from a few weeks ago, embarrassed when they lost 1-0 at Sheffield United. It’s a bolder, more forward-looking approach.
Since Newcastle switched to this diamond-like formation after losing to Leeds with Miguel Almiron in their pockets, Newcastle has averaged just under two goals per game and 12.5 shots per game. I thought they did quite well at Chelsea, scoring 10 shots on goal – most of what Thomas Tuchel has seen in the league since he took office at Stamford Bridge. Yes there will be a problem finishing those chances without Callum Wilson but if you play like this Newcastle will still get into dangerous areas of the field with Allan Saint-Maximin an obvious threat.
There are many betting angles I would like to tackle. Perhaps the strongest part of trying to get a return would be to support Newcastle by a two-goal margin on October 11th. For Newcastle to win, the bet must either win for a goal, draw or lose.
This is a bet that would have supported the opposing team in 14 of Manchester United’s last 16 games.
I also like the 11/10 for Newcastle to have 10 or more shots and wouldn’t mind playing the 9/2 for 13 or more shots.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1
ANGLE OF BET: Newcastle +2 (10/11 with Sky Bet)
ANGLE OF BET: Newcastle has 13 or more shots (9/2 with Sky Bet)
Brighton vs Crystal Palace, Monday, 8 p.m., live on Sky Sports
If Crystal Palace continue to play with the same lackluster demeanor in their last two Leeds and home losses to Burnley, Fulham may have a chance to pursue them in the relegation battle. They seem to meander towards the end of the season where Roy Hodgson is out of contract and a change in the shelter is most likely underway. It’s not an ideal scenario for them to be scrapped. Will the players be motivated?
Brighton, meanwhile, is a club going in the opposite direction under Graham Potter. Yes, cricket scorelines are not played in their favor, but their ball and ball trial can make them a potential force in this league as players continue to improve. While Wilfried Zaha is still in the treatment room, the beleaguered palace may have trouble living with Brighton’s posh approach.
Somehow, Palace walked away with a 1-1 draw in the second leg at Selhurst Park despite having only one shot on goal in the 90 minutes compared to Brighton’s 20. It’s very hard to see how Hodgson’s boys get into trouble with a conceded defense are only two goals in the last seven games. Home win.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0
ANGLE OF BET: Brighton to win to nil (7/4 with Sky Bet)
Results from Saturday …
Southampton versus Chelsea
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1
CORRECT RESULTS: 1-1
ANGLE OF BET: Cesar Azpilicueta receives a card (4/1 with Sky Bet) – LOST
Burnley versus West Brom
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1
CORRECT RESULTS: 0-0
COMPETITION ANGLE: Both teams score one goal and more than 2.5 goals (6/4 with Sky Bet) – LOST
Liverpool versus Everton
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 3-0
CORRECT RESULTS: 0-2
ANGLE OF BET: Thiago to pick up a card (100/30 with Sky Bet) – LOST
Fulham versus Sheffield United
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-1
CORRECT RESULTS: 1-0
ANGLE OF COMPETITION: Sheffield United has been sidelined three or more times (10/11 with Sky Bet) – WON
Friday result …
Wolves versus Leeds United
JONES KNOWS PREVIOUSLY: 2-1