Sheffield United is now 14 points behind safety at the foot of the table. 19th West Brom are also 11 points behind 17th – but Fulham have hit the form and are only three points deep in the drop zone.
Currently, only 10 points divide the Cottager in 18th and Crystal Palace in 13th, so any teams in between could slip into the second division in May: Newcastle, Brighton, Burnley and Southampton.
Projected table
Current points per game
Based on their current ratios of goals scored, goals conceded and points per game, relegation teams would reflect the current rating, with Sheffield United, West Brom and Fulham signing championship football next season.
Who has the toughest enema?
Of the current bottom three, Fulham appear to be the only team that can escape the fall – but Scott Parker’s side are facing the toughest schedule with an average opponent of 9.5 on the standings and 1.49 points per game. West Brom’s dwindling chances also look bad on a string of tough games.
Conversely, Newcastle fans will be relieved that their side has the easiest run-in of the eight relegation candidates, and Southampton is also facing a more favorable schedule.
Sheffield Utd
overview
Position: 20 ..
Games played: 25th
PPG: 0.44
Relegation Sky Bet odds: 1/66
Active cup competitions: FA Cup
Form
The blades appeared to be losing their edge after returning from lockdown last year. The following table shows the average number of goals scored and conceded over a five-game period and shows how the blades failed to fire this season.
The graph below gives a clearer indication of the true quality of the opportunities created and conceded over this period, and shows the same average for goals expected (xG) and goals conceded (xGa). These data suggest that Chris Wilder’s squad were only marginally underdog for most of the season.
xG basics
- A shot from eight meters has a higher xG value than a shot from 18 meters
- A shot directly in front of the goal has a higher xG value than a shot from a narrow angle
- A shot with the foot has a higher xG value than a header
Remaining devices
Average position of the remaining opponents: 10.8
Average PPG of the remaining opponents: 1.38
On paper, Sheffield United faces the third easiest entry of the eight competitors – but they still face Liverpool, Aston Villa, Leicester, Leeds, Arsenal, Tottenham and Everton.
West Brom
overview
Position: 19 ..
Games played: 25th
PPG: 0.56
Relegation Sky Bet odds: 1/50
Active cup competitions: None
Form
West Brom might be lucky not to be at the bottom. The graph below shows the largest inferiority gap in the entire campaign – she has scored 55 goals in the league while only two teams have scored less than their 19 goals.
The data on the expected destinations do not cause any surprises. The Baggies’ returns clearly reflect the true quality of the opportunities they created and granted. Sam Allardyce’s clean record of keeping the clubs informed appears to be at stake.
Remaining devices
Average position of the remaining opponents: 9.7
Average PPG of the remaining opponents: 1.45
To exacerbate West Brom’s suffering, only Fulham has to face a tougher enema. Everton, Chelsea, Leicester, Aston Villa, Arsenal, Liverpool and West Ham await a season finale in Leeds.
Fulham
overview
Position: 18 ..
Games played: 25
PPG: 0.88
Relegation Sky Bet odds: 5/6
Active cup competitions: None
Form
The chart below clearly shows how Fulham has gradually improved over the course of the season – almost entirely due to being almost twice as waterproof defensively.
As with Sheffield United, the expected goal dates suggest the Cottagers were marginally outnumbered and again underscore how quick the defense is now – but is it too late?
Remaining devices
Average position of the remaining opponents: 9.5
Average PPG of the remaining opponents: 1.49
Fulham have now played four games without loss and won two of those games. The upswing in form is certainly a good sign compared to the 17th Newcastle’s downward trend.
But Parker’s squad is facing the toughest run-in of the eight teams. Even on paper, that’s quite an achievement. After Palace this weekend, they face back-to-back games against Tottenham, Liverpool, Manchester City, Leeds, Aston Villa, Wolves, Arsenal and Chelsea before playing against Manchester United at Old Trafford the penultimate weekend.
Newcastle
overview
Position: 17 ..
Games played: 25th
PPG: 1.00
Relegation Sky Bet odds: 13/8
Active cup competitions: None
Form
Newcastle’s form has been falling since mid-December and Steve Bruce has tried to develop a more offensive style after his side’s defensive approach received increasing criticism as results fell.
The expected destination data almost reflects the actual returns that Newcastle seemingly put in the driver’s seat to survive over Fulham.
Remaining devices
Average position of the remaining opponents: 10.9
Average PPG of the remaining opponents: 1.35
There is even more good news for toon fans: The magpies have the easiest enema – at least on paper. Bruce’s men face Villa and Spurs before mid-April when a difficult month begins with games against West Ham, Liverpool, Arsenal, Leicester and Manchester City.
Their schedule is comparatively easier than that of their rivals at the wrong end of the table, but their last two games are against Sheffield United and Fulham. Indeed, the season finale at Craven Cottage could prove to be crucial.
Brighton
overview
Position: 16 ..
Games played: 25th
PPG: 1.04
Relegation Sky Bet odds: 9/1
Active cup competitions: None
Form
Brighton has been rated “unlucky” several times this season, and rightly so. The following table shows the fine margins they have maintained at both ends of the pitch over this period.
Statistically, Graham Potter’s men are this season’s anomaly. The seagulls are elite on a number of metrics, but most noticeable is their expected return on investment. The table below almost resembles the inverse returns on their actual results – suggesting that their completion was below average, coupled with numerous bad luck cans along the way.
Remaining devices
Average position of the remaining opponents: 9.6
Average PPG of the remaining opponents: 1.44
Brighton is one of the four relegation candidates who have a slightly tougher schedule – but will try to score points in the upper half between runs in three games against their current opponents: the first in early April and the last three weeks of May.
Burnley
overview
Position: 15 ..
Games played: 25th
PPG: 1.12
Relegation Sky Bet odds: 7/1
Active cup competitions: None
Form
Burnley continues to maintain Premier League status and defy limited resources, but has been dragged into the periphery of a relegation battle again this season. A recent upswing has been accompanied by a similar improvement at closest rivals, but Sean Dyche’s men are set to secure a fifth consecutive top campaign.
Interestingly, after the expected goal dates early in the season, the Clarets got unlucky but got happier as the campaign progressed.
Remaining devices
Average position of the remaining opponents: 10.2
Average PPG of the remaining opponents: 1.39
Dyche will be calmly confident with his squad’s upcoming schedule. After an upcoming tough run against Spurs, Leicester, Arsenal and Everton, the Clarets will only face four other top teams: Manchester United, West Ham, Leeds and Liverpool.
Southampton
overview
Position: 14 ..
Games played: 25th
PPG: 1.20
Relegation Sky Bet odds: 40/1
Active cup competitions: FA Cup
Form
Southampton led the Premier League only three months ago, but the high point of the compact table this season and a loss of form since mid-January – seven losses in their last eight games – have seen the Saints slide to 14th place, just eight Points ahead of Fulham.
Expected goals data suggests Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side have made maximum returns from lean margins, but the decline in recent weeks has been sharp – compounded by the humiliating 9-0 defeat at Manchester United.
Remaining devices
Average position of the remaining opponents: 10.8
Average PPG of the remaining opponents: 1.35
The list of games, however, seems to ensure the Saints will avoid a dizzying slump in relegation, along with Newcastle, the easiest enema of the eight contenders. Tough opponents will be interrupted by games against teams from the lower half and should offer ample opportunities to ensure survival.
Crystal palace
overview
Position: 13 ..
Games played: 25
PPG: 1.28
Relegation Sky Bet odds: 22/1
Active cup competitions: None
Form
Palace are a real underdog for relegation and are currently 10 points ahead of Fulham. An impressive first half of the season deteriorated in mid-December – but the Eagles seem to have secured security with their 32 points so far.
Expected goals data underscore that Roy Hodgson’s side are almost certainly exactly where they deserve, ending as often to avoid the serious threat of danger in the upper echelons of the lower half.
Remaining devices
Average position of the remaining opponents: 9.5
Average PPG of the remaining opponents: 1.44
Palace, however, have a relatively tricky enema and will be looking to score points against Fulham, West Brom (March), Southampton (April) and Sheffield United (May) this weekend.
